Not a good time for my mental health: March Madness lends itself to Carolina blues. I suppose I should congratulate the Tar Heels, much as it pains me. None of their tournament opponents could put together 40 minutes of good play against them, and they all had bad nights when it came to outside shooting. That's more than a coincidence; that's good... defense? Apparently.
UNC didn't need to show greatness to win it all, which makes them a very frustrating kind of champion. But they were excellent in one facet: the ability to wear the other team down. (In this regard, they remind me of Wisconsin. Except Carolina uses a speedy pace and a variety of scoring options, while the Badgers suck the life out of the game with their awfulness. They're the Toby Flenderson of hoops.)
Sure, the Heels managed to avoid having to play Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and Louisville in the Year of the Big East, but their path still wasn't easy. Super athletic LSU? Gonzaga's pro-ready starters? Blake Griffin and Oklahoma? Villanova, faster, better at rebounding, and with a V for Vendetta? A rematch in Detroit against Michigan State, which was essentially a road game? They earned it.
After my prognostication skills peaked a year ago, I fell, and fell hard. For the 2009 Final Four, I predicted Michigan State correctly, but was off on Texas and UCLA, and was way off on champion Notre Dame (which made the NIT Final Four, but couldn't even win that). It's a somewhat pointless guessing game -- coaches may leave, recruits may go elsewhere, and you can't know for sure which players will declare for the draft, transfer, or get injured. But hey, it's my guessing game.
Even with Ed Davis saying he'll return, the Heels will leave the top tier and rebuild next year, which is good news for everyone else. Duke may top an even weaker ACC, but I still don't see them as Final Four caliber. So who will ascend to the NCAA's lame default city of Indianapolis in 2010? One year in advance, I'm calling it: Syracuse, Ohio State, Kansas, and Purdue.
Next year's champ is... the Syracuse Orange. The citrus industry rejoices. Jonny "Quest" Flynn makes headbands stylish again. Eric "Thug Life" Devendorf endears himself to a skeptical nation. And coach Jim "In the Zone" Boeheim proves he can win a title without Carmelo Anthony.
Showing posts with label college basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label college basketball. Show all posts
Monday, April 06, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
The All-NewsRadio team
Welcome to the NCAA tournament! The year's best 2 days of sports are today and tomorrow. Enjoy it if/while you can.
To celebrate, I'm following up 2007's All-Simpsons Team and 2008's All-Hogwarts Team with a new pop culture tribute: The All-NewsRadio Team.
I thought of it a few months ago while watching a Marquette game. Too bad one of my co-captains later had a season-ending injury, but he still deserves this honor.
Granted, it's kind of a small team this year. Then again, the TV show had a small cast, and Beth didn't even have a last name!
CO-CAPTAINS
Jerel "Bill" McNeal, Marquette
Dominic "Jimmy" James, Marquette
REST OF TEAM
Calvin "Matthew" Brock, Illinois
Joe Krabbenhoft "Garrelli," Wisconsin
Austin "Johnny" Johnson, Oklahoma
Dwight "Max" Lewis, USC
Mike "Dave" Nelson, North Dakota State
COACH
Sean "Lisa" Miller, Xavier
And don't forget Catherine Duke. That's a whole team right there.
To celebrate, I'm following up 2007's All-Simpsons Team and 2008's All-Hogwarts Team with a new pop culture tribute: The All-NewsRadio Team.
I thought of it a few months ago while watching a Marquette game. Too bad one of my co-captains later had a season-ending injury, but he still deserves this honor.
Granted, it's kind of a small team this year. Then again, the TV show had a small cast, and Beth didn't even have a last name!
CO-CAPTAINS
Jerel "Bill" McNeal, Marquette
Dominic "Jimmy" James, Marquette
REST OF TEAM
Calvin "Matthew" Brock, Illinois
Joe Krabbenhoft "Garrelli," Wisconsin
Austin "Johnny" Johnson, Oklahoma
Dwight "Max" Lewis, USC
Mike "Dave" Nelson, North Dakota State
COACH
Sean "Lisa" Miller, Xavier
And don't forget Catherine Duke. That's a whole team right there.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
The NCAA double dip (2009)
This is an annual post: see also 2006, 2007, 2008.
Which college is most likely to have both their men's and women's teams advance to the Final Four? There are 26 such candidates this year (compare to 20 in 2006, 23 in 2007, and 22 in 2008), but numbers don't quite tell the whole story. Of those 26, only two -- East Tennessee State and Virginia Commonwealth -- are mid-major programs. The rest are from BCS or BCS-adjacent conferences.
In my opinion, there is a tie for first place, because I picked two schools to make both Final Fours this year.
1. Louisville. Men are a #1 seed; women are a #3 seed. Both teams have been a bit overshadowed all season; I say it's their time. The men are certainly peaking when it counts the most, and their region's path is very navigable. The women may have to upset Baylor and Maryland if they want to match the feat.
1. Oklahoma. Men #2; women #1. Courtney Paris said she would forfeit her scholarship if the Sooners didn't win the title. Tall order, considering that Connecticut is undefeated and unchallenged. But anyone who supports the downfall of the Huskies is aces in my book. Speaking of...
3. Connecticut. Men #1; women #1. A pair of top seeds, and a prohibitive favorite on the women's side. But I'm not seeing the men winning the regional final against Memphis or Missouri. And I'm staying true to my year-in-advance pick of California, who would face the UConn women in the 3rd round.
4. Duke. Men #2; women #1. Put it this way: the women could face 8 seed Michigan State in East Lansing, and 2 seed Stanford in Berkeley. And maybe Tennessee in between. Hard to imagine, but the men may have the easier path. So why did I pick only the women to get there? Contrarian tendencies, I guess.
5. Pittsburgh. Men #1; women #4. In a season where the Big East reigned supreme in men's hoops, I wonder if the conference will make an equivalent dent in both tournaments when all is said and done. I don't know much about the women's team, but I'm expecting good things from the men.
The other 19 schools are Arizona State, California, Florida State, Gonzaga, LSU, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Purdue, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Utah, Villanova, and Xavier.
Which college is most likely to have both their men's and women's teams advance to the Final Four? There are 26 such candidates this year (compare to 20 in 2006, 23 in 2007, and 22 in 2008), but numbers don't quite tell the whole story. Of those 26, only two -- East Tennessee State and Virginia Commonwealth -- are mid-major programs. The rest are from BCS or BCS-adjacent conferences.
In my opinion, there is a tie for first place, because I picked two schools to make both Final Fours this year.
1. Louisville. Men are a #1 seed; women are a #3 seed. Both teams have been a bit overshadowed all season; I say it's their time. The men are certainly peaking when it counts the most, and their region's path is very navigable. The women may have to upset Baylor and Maryland if they want to match the feat.
1. Oklahoma. Men #2; women #1. Courtney Paris said she would forfeit her scholarship if the Sooners didn't win the title. Tall order, considering that Connecticut is undefeated and unchallenged. But anyone who supports the downfall of the Huskies is aces in my book. Speaking of...
3. Connecticut. Men #1; women #1. A pair of top seeds, and a prohibitive favorite on the women's side. But I'm not seeing the men winning the regional final against Memphis or Missouri. And I'm staying true to my year-in-advance pick of California, who would face the UConn women in the 3rd round.
4. Duke. Men #2; women #1. Put it this way: the women could face 8 seed Michigan State in East Lansing, and 2 seed Stanford in Berkeley. And maybe Tennessee in between. Hard to imagine, but the men may have the easier path. So why did I pick only the women to get there? Contrarian tendencies, I guess.
5. Pittsburgh. Men #1; women #4. In a season where the Big East reigned supreme in men's hoops, I wonder if the conference will make an equivalent dent in both tournaments when all is said and done. I don't know much about the women's team, but I'm expecting good things from the men.
The other 19 schools are Arizona State, California, Florida State, Gonzaga, LSU, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Purdue, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Utah, Villanova, and Xavier.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Sorry to burst your bubble
One of the consequences of focusing on the top 16 teams is my lessened interest in the so-called bubble; that is, the fine line between schools that make the tournament and schools that don't.
Truth be told, it's hard for me to care. Every year the bubble conversation is the same: with no magic number of wins or steady criteria to separate the haves from the have-nots, it's all just speculation. And while there's one George Mason -- a questionable at-large team in 2006 that proves everyone wrong by making the Final Four -- there are a dozen invitees each year whose appearance and eventual performance are equally blah.
I'd like to think that the NCAA Selection Committee composes a top-secret formula that combines and appropriately weighs all distinguishing factors (schedule strength, opponent strength, conference rank, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, etc.) and ranks all 344 teams. Then they take a marker and cross out the 31 teams that get automatic bids for winning their conference tournaments. Then they highlight the top 34 teams left. There's your field. The rest of the time can be spent bickering over how those 65 teams should be seeded.
But I think the process is a lot more abstract, with conference lobbying in play. So really, the Selection Committee opens itself up for the painful criticism from angry commentators who can't understand why their favorite 76 teams didn't all make the tournament. This is a waste of time, and my least favorite part of Selection Sunday. That time should be spent on criticizing the Committee's lousy seeding choices instead.
You can see why I like the 1-4 seeds. How I see it, for the last time this season. Within the hour, the Selection Committee will see it differently (and incorrectly).
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
01. Louisville: The Pitt/UConn show has a surprise ending.
08. Michigan State: They did win the Big Ten by 4 games.
09. Kansas: 2008's champion reserves are the starters now.
16. Florida St: Will their ACC breakthrough translate nationally?
East Regional (Boston)
02. North Carolina: Had the best loss of the weekend, I guess.
07. Oklahoma: Gets the edge over Kansas and Missouri.
10. Villanova: Would love some karmic payback against UNC.
15. Arizona State: Coach Herb Sendek knows the Heels well.
South Regional (Memphis)
03. Pittsburgh: Swept UConn before quarterfinal loss to WVU.
06. Duke: Did what had to be done to show they belong.
11. Missouri: Only 3 seed here with a winning streak.
14. Gonzaga: The 3rd conference tourney champ in this subset.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
04. Memphis: They dominated with the schedule they were given.
05. Connecticut: 6OT? Okay, this was the best loss of the weekend.
12. Washington: Won Pac-10 outright, decent exit to Sun Devils.
13. Syracuse: Almost 5-0 in five days. Hope there's no letdown.
UPDATE! The NCAA Selection Committee's top 16 teams...
Midwest: Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas, Wake Forest
East: Pittsburgh, Duke, Villanova, Xavier
South: North Carolina, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Gonzaga
West: Connecticut, Memphis, Missouri, Washington
I predicted 14 of 16, including Arizona State and Florida State rather than Xavier and Wake Forest. Just for fun, I also looked at my first prediction from last November; I called 9 of 16. (Though I shouldn't brag: I had Davidson as a 4 seed and Notre Dame winning it all, and neither made the field.)
Truth be told, it's hard for me to care. Every year the bubble conversation is the same: with no magic number of wins or steady criteria to separate the haves from the have-nots, it's all just speculation. And while there's one George Mason -- a questionable at-large team in 2006 that proves everyone wrong by making the Final Four -- there are a dozen invitees each year whose appearance and eventual performance are equally blah.
I'd like to think that the NCAA Selection Committee composes a top-secret formula that combines and appropriately weighs all distinguishing factors (schedule strength, opponent strength, conference rank, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, etc.) and ranks all 344 teams. Then they take a marker and cross out the 31 teams that get automatic bids for winning their conference tournaments. Then they highlight the top 34 teams left. There's your field. The rest of the time can be spent bickering over how those 65 teams should be seeded.
But I think the process is a lot more abstract, with conference lobbying in play. So really, the Selection Committee opens itself up for the painful criticism from angry commentators who can't understand why their favorite 76 teams didn't all make the tournament. This is a waste of time, and my least favorite part of Selection Sunday. That time should be spent on criticizing the Committee's lousy seeding choices instead.
You can see why I like the 1-4 seeds. How I see it, for the last time this season. Within the hour, the Selection Committee will see it differently (and incorrectly).
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
01. Louisville: The Pitt/UConn show has a surprise ending.
08. Michigan State: They did win the Big Ten by 4 games.
09. Kansas: 2008's champion reserves are the starters now.
16. Florida St: Will their ACC breakthrough translate nationally?
East Regional (Boston)
02. North Carolina: Had the best loss of the weekend, I guess.
07. Oklahoma: Gets the edge over Kansas and Missouri.
10. Villanova: Would love some karmic payback against UNC.
15. Arizona State: Coach Herb Sendek knows the Heels well.
South Regional (Memphis)
03. Pittsburgh: Swept UConn before quarterfinal loss to WVU.
06. Duke: Did what had to be done to show they belong.
11. Missouri: Only 3 seed here with a winning streak.
14. Gonzaga: The 3rd conference tourney champ in this subset.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
04. Memphis: They dominated with the schedule they were given.
05. Connecticut: 6OT? Okay, this was the best loss of the weekend.
12. Washington: Won Pac-10 outright, decent exit to Sun Devils.
13. Syracuse: Almost 5-0 in five days. Hope there's no letdown.
UPDATE! The NCAA Selection Committee's top 16 teams...
Midwest: Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas, Wake Forest
East: Pittsburgh, Duke, Villanova, Xavier
South: North Carolina, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Gonzaga
West: Connecticut, Memphis, Missouri, Washington
I predicted 14 of 16, including Arizona State and Florida State rather than Xavier and Wake Forest. Just for fun, I also looked at my first prediction from last November; I called 9 of 16. (Though I shouldn't brag: I had Davidson as a 4 seed and Notre Dame winning it all, and neither made the field.)
Sunday, March 01, 2009
March has arrived
Selection Sunday is two weeks away, and while the bubble has become more defined, the picture at the top looks no clearer.
East Regional (Boston)
01. Connecticut: Pitt goes for the sweep March 7.
08. Kansas: On a hot streak, and I can't ignore them anymore.
09. Washington: One win away from outright Pac-10 title.
16. Brigham Young: Don't count out the Mountain West.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
02. Pittsburgh: They look uncomfortable with a #1 ranking.
07. Michigan State: Big Ten title all but locked up.
10. Duke: Saved face with that 4-game winning streak.
15. LSU: I guess an SEC team might break through after all.
South Regional (Memphis)
03. Oklahoma: A win at Missouri should cement top seed.
06. Louisville: Might tie UConn for regular season title.
11. Gonzaga: Remember them? They're winning again.
14. Marquette: Loss of Dominic James could cost them 4 seed.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
04. North Carolina: Go west, and avoid the Big East's best.
05. Memphis: Like last year, a freshman stud at the point.
12. Villanova: Clear separation behind Big East's top three.
13. Missouri: In the mix, despite that 25-point loss to Kansas.
Also considered: Wake Forest, Utah, Butler, UCLA.
East Regional (Boston)
01. Connecticut: Pitt goes for the sweep March 7.
08. Kansas: On a hot streak, and I can't ignore them anymore.
09. Washington: One win away from outright Pac-10 title.
16. Brigham Young: Don't count out the Mountain West.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
02. Pittsburgh: They look uncomfortable with a #1 ranking.
07. Michigan State: Big Ten title all but locked up.
10. Duke: Saved face with that 4-game winning streak.
15. LSU: I guess an SEC team might break through after all.
South Regional (Memphis)
03. Oklahoma: A win at Missouri should cement top seed.
06. Louisville: Might tie UConn for regular season title.
11. Gonzaga: Remember them? They're winning again.
14. Marquette: Loss of Dominic James could cost them 4 seed.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
04. North Carolina: Go west, and avoid the Big East's best.
05. Memphis: Like last year, a freshman stud at the point.
12. Villanova: Clear separation behind Big East's top three.
13. Missouri: In the mix, despite that 25-point loss to Kansas.
Also considered: Wake Forest, Utah, Butler, UCLA.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Re-evaluation
This feels like a good time to wipe the slate clean and re-evaluate the elite teams in college basketball. It's easy to fall into the bad habit of revising past rankings; poll voters do it every week, as they are lazy and useless.
With the exception of a select few, every team looks beatable at this point because they've in fact been beaten recently. In some cases, soundly.
South Regional (Memphis)
01. Oklahoma: 10-0 in a major conference? They stand alone.
08. Louisville: The victim of Notre Dame's one-game revival.
09. Clemson: Maybe they are a top-tier ACC contender.
16. Illinois: Lone home loss (to Clemson) not so bad.
East Regional (Boston)
02. Connecticut: Last 6 games include 2 clashes with Pitt.
07. Arizona State: Sweep of UCLA may reflect a shift out west.
10. Marquette: Should freefall in final phase of schedule.
15. Utah State: One-loss teams: Sooners, Huskies, and Aggies.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
03. North Carolina: May not look battle-tested until ACC tourney.
06. Michigan State: Worrisome home losses to PSU and NU.
11. Villanova: Should improve in final phase of schedule.
14. Missouri: Steady rise capped by Texas, Kansas wins.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
04. Pittsburgh: Best candidate for the last top seed right now.
05. Memphis: Didn't think they'd bounce back so soon.
12. Washington: Tops in Pac-10, but being swept by Cal hurts.
13. Duke: Prognosis clear after UNC loss: severely limited.
Also considered: Florida State, Xavier, Wake Forest, Ohio State.
With the exception of a select few, every team looks beatable at this point because they've in fact been beaten recently. In some cases, soundly.
South Regional (Memphis)
01. Oklahoma: 10-0 in a major conference? They stand alone.
08. Louisville: The victim of Notre Dame's one-game revival.
09. Clemson: Maybe they are a top-tier ACC contender.
16. Illinois: Lone home loss (to Clemson) not so bad.
East Regional (Boston)
02. Connecticut: Last 6 games include 2 clashes with Pitt.
07. Arizona State: Sweep of UCLA may reflect a shift out west.
10. Marquette: Should freefall in final phase of schedule.
15. Utah State: One-loss teams: Sooners, Huskies, and Aggies.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
03. North Carolina: May not look battle-tested until ACC tourney.
06. Michigan State: Worrisome home losses to PSU and NU.
11. Villanova: Should improve in final phase of schedule.
14. Missouri: Steady rise capped by Texas, Kansas wins.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
04. Pittsburgh: Best candidate for the last top seed right now.
05. Memphis: Didn't think they'd bounce back so soon.
12. Washington: Tops in Pac-10, but being swept by Cal hurts.
13. Duke: Prognosis clear after UNC loss: severely limited.
Also considered: Florida State, Xavier, Wake Forest, Ohio State.
Friday, January 30, 2009
What happened to Notre Dame?
As I've often mentioned, I picked Notre Dame to win the 2009 NCAA Tournament. I thought they had the experience and toughness to win the formidable Big East, receive a favorable seed, and then storm their way in and through the Final Four in Detroit.
The season is far from over, but with a record of 12-7 (3-5 in the Big East) and a 4-game skid, the Fighting Irish don't look like they have enough fight in them. If anything, they remind me of short-staffed Duke squads of past seasons, without the overachieving conference play. Their exceptional starters can only get them so far. I hold out hope that they can make a late-season run, but I've already prepared myself to be very, very wrong.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
01. Oklahoma: Stories of the season? Big East, ACC, them.
08. Xavier: Maybe they're 2 seed material after all.
09. Marquette: Flying high, but they'll level off soon.
16. Clemson: Probably won't crack ACC's top 3.
South Regional (Memphis)
02. Wake Forest: Now 2-0 along the Tobacco Road.
07. Pittsburgh: A little vulnerable after the Nova loss.
10. Texas: Admit it. You've forgotten about them too.
15. Purdue: Squeaking in on strength of last 5 games.
East Regional (Boston)
03. Connecticut: And now the hard part of their schedule.
06. North Carolina: Comeback vs. FSU both classic and annoying.
11. Villanova: More than just guards and a well-dressed coach.
14. Memphis: Again in the Conference USA driver's seat.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
04. Louisville: Always athletic, now significantly more cohesive.
05. Duke: Even the legendary 1992 squad lost in Winston-Salem.
12. Michigan State: Suddenly the Big Ten looks competitive.
13. Butler: Newish coach and players, same outstanding result.
Also considered: Gonzaga, Providence, UCLA, West Virginia.
The season is far from over, but with a record of 12-7 (3-5 in the Big East) and a 4-game skid, the Fighting Irish don't look like they have enough fight in them. If anything, they remind me of short-staffed Duke squads of past seasons, without the overachieving conference play. Their exceptional starters can only get them so far. I hold out hope that they can make a late-season run, but I've already prepared myself to be very, very wrong.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
01. Oklahoma: Stories of the season? Big East, ACC, them.
08. Xavier: Maybe they're 2 seed material after all.
09. Marquette: Flying high, but they'll level off soon.
16. Clemson: Probably won't crack ACC's top 3.
South Regional (Memphis)
02. Wake Forest: Now 2-0 along the Tobacco Road.
07. Pittsburgh: A little vulnerable after the Nova loss.
10. Texas: Admit it. You've forgotten about them too.
15. Purdue: Squeaking in on strength of last 5 games.
East Regional (Boston)
03. Connecticut: And now the hard part of their schedule.
06. North Carolina: Comeback vs. FSU both classic and annoying.
11. Villanova: More than just guards and a well-dressed coach.
14. Memphis: Again in the Conference USA driver's seat.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
04. Louisville: Always athletic, now significantly more cohesive.
05. Duke: Even the legendary 1992 squad lost in Winston-Salem.
12. Michigan State: Suddenly the Big Ten looks competitive.
13. Butler: Newish coach and players, same outstanding result.
Also considered: Gonzaga, Providence, UCLA, West Virginia.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Conference calling
People seem to forget this every season, but a team's in-conference play matters. North Carolina (and some overzealous pundits) got an early comeuppance from Boston College, and then another from Wake Forest. Another, less publicized example: Arkansas. They crashed the party a bit with home wins over Oklahoma and Texas, but opened SEC play with losses to Ole Miss and Mississippi State.
When I picked my year-in-advance Final Four, I had no idea they'd play each other in the regular season. Texas lost to Notre Dame and Michigan State, but beat UCLA. And the Fighting Irish will visit the Bruins next month.
This weekend's slate includes Wake Forest-Clemson, Pittsburgh-Louisville, Arizona State-UCLA, Illinois-Michigan State, Notre Dame-Syracuse, and Duke-Georgetown. Special weekend? Nope. Just college basketball.
East Regional (Boston)
01. Pittsburgh: So this is what they're like when healthy.
08. North Carolina: Great? Let's see .500 in ACC first.
09. Louisville: Will home advantage work against Pitt?
16. Texas: Missed 2 of every 3 shots against OU.
South Regional (Memphis)
02. Wake Forest: Team of next year may not have to wait.
07. Georgetown: Should win a title within next 5 years.
10. Michigan State: Beat Illini and create some distance.
15. Notre Dame: St. John's loss threatens top-tier status.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
03. Clemson: Can make a huge statement at home vs. Wake.
06. Connecticut: Has a month to warm up for Pitt.
11. Xavier: Should hover around 3 seed all season.
14. Baylor: Wake loss is looking better and better.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
04. Oklahoma: Beat Texas. Blake Griffin > Sam Bradford.
05. Duke: Not entirely convinced. Waiting-and-seeing.
12. UCLA: Each Pac-10 loss should cost them a seed.
13. Minnesota: Winning at Wisconsin still means a lot.
Also considered: Syracuse, Arkansas, Butler, Marquette.
When I picked my year-in-advance Final Four, I had no idea they'd play each other in the regular season. Texas lost to Notre Dame and Michigan State, but beat UCLA. And the Fighting Irish will visit the Bruins next month.
This weekend's slate includes Wake Forest-Clemson, Pittsburgh-Louisville, Arizona State-UCLA, Illinois-Michigan State, Notre Dame-Syracuse, and Duke-Georgetown. Special weekend? Nope. Just college basketball.
East Regional (Boston)
01. Pittsburgh: So this is what they're like when healthy.
08. North Carolina: Great? Let's see .500 in ACC first.
09. Louisville: Will home advantage work against Pitt?
16. Texas: Missed 2 of every 3 shots against OU.
South Regional (Memphis)
02. Wake Forest: Team of next year may not have to wait.
07. Georgetown: Should win a title within next 5 years.
10. Michigan State: Beat Illini and create some distance.
15. Notre Dame: St. John's loss threatens top-tier status.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
03. Clemson: Can make a huge statement at home vs. Wake.
06. Connecticut: Has a month to warm up for Pitt.
11. Xavier: Should hover around 3 seed all season.
14. Baylor: Wake loss is looking better and better.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
04. Oklahoma: Beat Texas. Blake Griffin > Sam Bradford.
05. Duke: Not entirely convinced. Waiting-and-seeing.
12. UCLA: Each Pac-10 loss should cost them a seed.
13. Minnesota: Winning at Wisconsin still means a lot.
Also considered: Syracuse, Arkansas, Butler, Marquette.
Friday, November 07, 2008
Hoops! I did it again.
(What's great about that pun is that it's so timely.)
It's time to reveal the All-Mehta preseason standings in men's college basketball. I have no delusions here: my take on the sport will never be as revered as "All-Madden" in the NFL, but at the same time, I promise not to pitch antifungal foot cream.
At the end of last season I predicted the 2009 Final Four: Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan State, and UCLA. Since then, Texas lost D.J. Augustin to the NBA, and UCLA had an overhaul, but I'll stick with both for now.
East Regional (Boston)
01. North Carolina: Best? Can't tell. Most stacked? Definitely.
08. Pittsburgh: A team like this would give the Heels fits.
09. Gonzaga: Got a 2 seed 5 years ago. This squad's better.
16. Texas: FYI... A.J. to replace D.J. at PG.
South Regional (Memphis)
02. Louisville: Veterans + frosh + Pitino = early Big East fave.
07. Michigan State: Would love a Final Four close to home.
10. Duke: Maybe not quite exactly close to Top 5 material. Yet.
15. Arizona State: More poise to make Pac-10 noise than USC.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
03. UCLA: Most theoretical of the top seeds right now.
06. Connecticut: Not convinced they're the Beast of the Big East.
11. Oklahoma: In Big 12 South, basketball looks like football.
14. Tennessee: Best of a depleted and downward SEC.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
04. Purdue: Returning stars give them the in-state edge.
05. Notre Dame: Positioned to make this their year. Watch.
12. Memphis: Comparatively loaded, easy-ish schedule.
13. Davidson: Strong belief that last year was no fluke.
Also considered: Wake Forest, USC, Xavier, Wisconsin.
It's time to reveal the All-Mehta preseason standings in men's college basketball. I have no delusions here: my take on the sport will never be as revered as "All-Madden" in the NFL, but at the same time, I promise not to pitch antifungal foot cream.
At the end of last season I predicted the 2009 Final Four: Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan State, and UCLA. Since then, Texas lost D.J. Augustin to the NBA, and UCLA had an overhaul, but I'll stick with both for now.
East Regional (Boston)
01. North Carolina: Best? Can't tell. Most stacked? Definitely.
08. Pittsburgh: A team like this would give the Heels fits.
09. Gonzaga: Got a 2 seed 5 years ago. This squad's better.
16. Texas: FYI... A.J. to replace D.J. at PG.
South Regional (Memphis)
02. Louisville: Veterans + frosh + Pitino = early Big East fave.
07. Michigan State: Would love a Final Four close to home.
10. Duke: Maybe not quite exactly close to Top 5 material. Yet.
15. Arizona State: More poise to make Pac-10 noise than USC.
West Regional (Glendale, AZ)
03. UCLA: Most theoretical of the top seeds right now.
06. Connecticut: Not convinced they're the Beast of the Big East.
11. Oklahoma: In Big 12 South, basketball looks like football.
14. Tennessee: Best of a depleted and downward SEC.
Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)
04. Purdue: Returning stars give them the in-state edge.
05. Notre Dame: Positioned to make this their year. Watch.
12. Memphis: Comparatively loaded, easy-ish schedule.
13. Davidson: Strong belief that last year was no fluke.
Also considered: Wake Forest, USC, Xavier, Wisconsin.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
I was half right!
The Lady Vols of Tennessee won their second straight title; good for them. My year-in-advance prediction had Connecticut and Stanford in the Final Four, so at least I was half right. Rutgers made the Elite 8, but my champion, the Oklahoma Sooners, lost in the second round.
So the bad news is another title that cements the UConn-Tennessee rivalry as something we're supposed to care about. But I don't, and I never have. The lack of parity makes the sport boring. There are more than two ways to win a title, and other powers need to step up and break the dual stranglehold. Unfortunately, everyone -- the media, the fans, and even the top girl recruits -- fail to realize this.
The good news is that seniors (and junior Candace Parker) graduate, so a change is unavoidable. While the 2008 Final Four -- Tennessee, Stanford, Connecticut, and LSU -- are reloading talent as usual, they've all lost the leadership and seasoned depth that will get them back to the Final Four in St. Louis next season.
So who'll crash the 2009 Final Four instead? One year in advance, I say California, Duke, Oklahoma, and Louisville. (Sooners, don't burn me a second consecutive year.) Berkeley's hippie fans will hit a new high -- ahem -- as Cal's sharp rise culminates in a national title for head coach Joanne Boyle.
So the bad news is another title that cements the UConn-Tennessee rivalry as something we're supposed to care about. But I don't, and I never have. The lack of parity makes the sport boring. There are more than two ways to win a title, and other powers need to step up and break the dual stranglehold. Unfortunately, everyone -- the media, the fans, and even the top girl recruits -- fail to realize this.
The good news is that seniors (and junior Candace Parker) graduate, so a change is unavoidable. While the 2008 Final Four -- Tennessee, Stanford, Connecticut, and LSU -- are reloading talent as usual, they've all lost the leadership and seasoned depth that will get them back to the Final Four in St. Louis next season.
So who'll crash the 2009 Final Four instead? One year in advance, I say California, Duke, Oklahoma, and Louisville. (Sooners, don't burn me a second consecutive year.) Berkeley's hippie fans will hit a new high -- ahem -- as Cal's sharp rise culminates in a national title for head coach Joanne Boyle.
Monday, April 07, 2008
I called it!
Congratulations to the Kansas Jayhawks for winning the 2008 men's basketball championship. As always, a combination of talent, discipline, coaching, and luck went into their title run. But I'd like to think that my year-in-advance prediction had something to do with it too. Oh yeah.
Even if I were wrong about my picks -- and, admittedly, I was way off on USC -- I enjoy doing them. It gives me a chance to evaluate the college basketball world without much media influence. Let SI and ESPN make their ridiculously early opinions tomorrow and later this week; I'll make my ridiculously early opinion tonight.
A year from now, Detroit hosts the 2009 Final Four. Who's there? I say Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan State, and UCLA. Catholics rejoice as Mike Brey and the Fighting Irish ascend to the top of the mountain. Three point Jesus!
Even if I were wrong about my picks -- and, admittedly, I was way off on USC -- I enjoy doing them. It gives me a chance to evaluate the college basketball world without much media influence. Let SI and ESPN make their ridiculously early opinions tomorrow and later this week; I'll make my ridiculously early opinion tonight.
A year from now, Detroit hosts the 2009 Final Four. Who's there? I say Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan State, and UCLA. Catholics rejoice as Mike Brey and the Fighting Irish ascend to the top of the mountain. Three point Jesus!
Monday, March 31, 2008
Still the ones
Congratulations to top seeds UNC, Kansas, UCLA, and Memphis, who all made the Final Four. While I don't think this is a great story, I do believe that next weekend could feature some outstanding basketball.
Kansas and UCLA stayed true to form, and took advantage of their comparatively easy brackets. (Davidson and Xavier were worthy Elite 8 opponents, mind you, but the Midwest and West regions never looked that daunting.)
Memphis was unfairly perceived as having no discipline or finesse, and changed a lot of minds when beating Michigan State and Texas -- and hitting their free throws in the process.
UNC, in my opinion, was the weakest of the top seeds based on the regular season -- their highest profile games were against BYU, Kent State, Davidson, and Kentucky. (I could criticize Duke as well, but at least they played Marquette, Wisconsin, and Pittsburgh in addition to Davidson.) But in adding big wins against Arkansas, Washington State, and Louisville, Carolina deserves to be where they're at right now.
How did I do with my year-in-advance picks? Same as last year.
April 2006 picks:
Ohio State, UCLA, UNC, Georgia Tech
2007 tournament:
Ohio State: Final Four, lost in final
UCLA: Final Four, lost in semis
UNC: Elite 8
Georgia Tech: lost in 1st round
April 2007 picks:
Kansas, Memphis, Louisville, USC
2008 tournament:
Kansas: Final Four, ?
Memphis: Final Four, ?
Louisville: Elite 8
USC: lost in 1st round
To complete the pattern, next Monday's championship must have UCLA beating Kansas or UNC beating Memphis. I mention this now to try to ensure that the latter does not happen.
Kansas and UCLA stayed true to form, and took advantage of their comparatively easy brackets. (Davidson and Xavier were worthy Elite 8 opponents, mind you, but the Midwest and West regions never looked that daunting.)
Memphis was unfairly perceived as having no discipline or finesse, and changed a lot of minds when beating Michigan State and Texas -- and hitting their free throws in the process.
UNC, in my opinion, was the weakest of the top seeds based on the regular season -- their highest profile games were against BYU, Kent State, Davidson, and Kentucky. (I could criticize Duke as well, but at least they played Marquette, Wisconsin, and Pittsburgh in addition to Davidson.) But in adding big wins against Arkansas, Washington State, and Louisville, Carolina deserves to be where they're at right now.
How did I do with my year-in-advance picks? Same as last year.
April 2006 picks:
Ohio State, UCLA, UNC, Georgia Tech
2007 tournament:
Ohio State: Final Four, lost in final
UCLA: Final Four, lost in semis
UNC: Elite 8
Georgia Tech: lost in 1st round
April 2007 picks:
Kansas, Memphis, Louisville, USC
2008 tournament:
Kansas: Final Four, ?
Memphis: Final Four, ?
Louisville: Elite 8
USC: lost in 1st round
To complete the pattern, next Monday's championship must have UCLA beating Kansas or UNC beating Memphis. I mention this now to try to ensure that the latter does not happen.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Syrupy sixteen (women)
Ouch. My year-in-advance pick to win it all, Oklahoma, lost in the second round. Now I wonder how long coach Sherri Coale can keep going without that Pantene endorsement. Sooner? No, later.
The ACC did very nicely; Virginia and Florida State came painfully close to joining Duke, UNC, and Maryland in the Sweet 16. That would have been 5 teams, which is the exact number of survivors the Big East can now boast. (Impressive.) Like the ACC, the SEC has 3 teams remaining, while the Big 12 got two and the Pac-10 one. Old Dominion and George Washington went colonial on the bracket to join the group, but all in all, it was very chalky.
The women's Sweet Sixteen:
East (Greensboro) Regional
01. Connecticut
08. Rutgers
09. California
16. Virginia
17. Old Dominion
24. George Washington
South (New Orleans) Regional
02. North Carolina
07. LSU
10. Oklahoma State
15. Louisville
Midwest (Oklahoma City) Regional
03. Tennessee
06. Texas A&M
11. Duke
14. Oklahoma
17. Notre Dame
West (Spokane) Regional
04. Maryland
05. Stanford
12. Baylor
13. Vanderbilt
21. Pittsburgh
The ACC did very nicely; Virginia and Florida State came painfully close to joining Duke, UNC, and Maryland in the Sweet 16. That would have been 5 teams, which is the exact number of survivors the Big East can now boast. (Impressive.) Like the ACC, the SEC has 3 teams remaining, while the Big 12 got two and the Pac-10 one. Old Dominion and George Washington went colonial on the bracket to join the group, but all in all, it was very chalky.
The women's Sweet Sixteen:
East (Greensboro) Regional
01. Connecticut
08. Rutgers
17. Old Dominion
24. George Washington
South (New Orleans) Regional
02. North Carolina
07. LSU
10. Oklahoma State
15. Louisville
Midwest (Oklahoma City) Regional
03. Tennessee
06. Texas A&M
11. Duke
17. Notre Dame
West (Spokane) Regional
04. Maryland
05. Stanford
13. Vanderbilt
21. Pittsburgh
Monday, March 24, 2008
Syrupy sixteen (men)
Welcome back, double digits! After last year's chalk-like opening weekend, we were due some upset excitement.
As expected, at least by me, Duke was one of the high-seed casualties. After almost losing to Belmont -- is it wrong to admit that by the end I was rooting for the 15 seed? -- they finally succumbed to West Virginia, a team that just wanted it more. To put some salt in the wound, keep in mind two things: (1) Coach K lost to Bob Huggins, and (2) the Mountaineers are undersized and not that deep.
After all the huffing and puffing over West Coast versus East Coast bias (what is this, 1990s hip-hop?), the Pac-10 and Big East each put 3 teams in the Sweet 16. The lowly Big Ten managed to sneak in 2 teams, while Kansas and Texas played to form in representing the Big 12. The ACC and SEC showed their true colors, each getting a lone team to survive the weekend.
The men's Sweet Sixteen:
East (Charlotte) Regional
01. North Carolina
08. Tennessee
09. Louisville
16. Washington State
West (Phoenix) Regional
02. UCLA
07. Duke
10. Xavier
15. Connecticut
26. West Virginia
47. Western Kentucky
South (Houston) Regional
03. Memphis
06. Texas
11. Stanford
14. Pittsburgh
17. Michigan State
Midwest (Detroit) Regional
04. Kansas
05. Georgetown
12. Wisconsin
13. Vanderbilt
37. Davidson
45. Villanova
As expected, at least by me, Duke was one of the high-seed casualties. After almost losing to Belmont -- is it wrong to admit that by the end I was rooting for the 15 seed? -- they finally succumbed to West Virginia, a team that just wanted it more. To put some salt in the wound, keep in mind two things: (1) Coach K lost to Bob Huggins, and (2) the Mountaineers are undersized and not that deep.
After all the huffing and puffing over West Coast versus East Coast bias (what is this, 1990s hip-hop?), the Pac-10 and Big East each put 3 teams in the Sweet 16. The lowly Big Ten managed to sneak in 2 teams, while Kansas and Texas played to form in representing the Big 12. The ACC and SEC showed their true colors, each getting a lone team to survive the weekend.
The men's Sweet Sixteen:
East (Charlotte) Regional
01. North Carolina
08. Tennessee
09. Louisville
16. Washington State
West (Phoenix) Regional
02. UCLA
10. Xavier
26. West Virginia
47. Western Kentucky
South (Houston) Regional
03. Memphis
06. Texas
11. Stanford
17. Michigan State
Midwest (Detroit) Regional
04. Kansas
12. Wisconsin
37. Davidson
45. Villanova
Sunday, March 23, 2008
The All-Hogwarts team
More on the actual NCAA tournament later. Some fun for now.
Last year's All-Simpsons team was so successful that I decided to try another approach. Here are my choices for the All-Hogwarts team, tracking down the players who share a name with characters in the Harry Potter series of books. The team is led by co-MVPs Drew Lavender and Derrick Brown, both of Xavier.
FIRST TEAM
Derrick "Lavender" Brown, Xavier
DeAndre "Lee" Jordan, Texas A&M
Drew Lavender "Brown", Xavier
Steffphon "Peter" Pettigrew, Western Kentucky
Will "Dean" Thomas, George Mason
SECOND TEAM
Keegan "Katie" Bell, Vanderbilt
Austin "Angelina" Johnson, Oklahoma
Rockwell "Alastor or Mad-Eye" Moody, St. Joseph's
David "Harry" Potter, Clemson
Surry "Oliver" Wood, UNC
HONORABLE MENTION (not in the NCAA tournament)
Michael "Professor" Binns, Fordham
Jeremy "Barty" Crouch, Bradley
Darin "Hermione" Granger, Evansville
Rahmon "Mundungus" Fletcher, Wisconsin-Green Bay
Phillip "Gilderoy" Lockhart, Jackson State
Last year's All-Simpsons team was so successful that I decided to try another approach. Here are my choices for the All-Hogwarts team, tracking down the players who share a name with characters in the Harry Potter series of books. The team is led by co-MVPs Drew Lavender and Derrick Brown, both of Xavier.
FIRST TEAM
Derrick "Lavender" Brown, Xavier
DeAndre "Lee" Jordan, Texas A&M
Drew Lavender "Brown", Xavier
Steffphon "Peter" Pettigrew, Western Kentucky
Will "Dean" Thomas, George Mason
SECOND TEAM
Keegan "Katie" Bell, Vanderbilt
Austin "Angelina" Johnson, Oklahoma
Rockwell "Alastor or Mad-Eye" Moody, St. Joseph's
David "Harry" Potter, Clemson
Surry "Oliver" Wood, UNC
HONORABLE MENTION (not in the NCAA tournament)
Michael "Professor" Binns, Fordham
Jeremy "Barty" Crouch, Bradley
Darin "Hermione" Granger, Evansville
Rahmon "Mundungus" Fletcher, Wisconsin-Green Bay
Phillip "Gilderoy" Lockhart, Jackson State
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
The NCAA double dip (2008)
In 2006 and 2007 I tried to predict which schools would have the best chance to place both their men's and women's teams in the Final Four. So I'm doing the same this year. Can any college get a double dip like the ones below?
1983: Georgia
1999: Duke
2002: Oklahoma
2003: Texas
2004: Connecticut
2005: Michigan State
2006: LSU
Success must love company, because quite a few schools have placed both teams in the NCAA tournaments. There were 20 in 2006, 23 in 2007, and 22 this year. Here are (in my opinion) the most likely of those schools to be doubly pleased in early April.
1. Stanford. Men are a #3 seed; women are a #2 seed. I think the brackets for each work in their favor. The men have the size and skill to beat smaller Texas and Memphis. The women stay in their time zone and have it in them to defeat Maryland. I'm not saying it's going to happen for both teams, but it could.
2. Tennessee. Men #2; women #1. Some people have the men losing in the 2nd round to Butler or South Alabama, but I think they will reach the Final Four. The women are favored to get there, but they may have to face Oklahoma in Oklahoma City. And the recently fallen Sooners have something to prove.
3. North Carolina. Men #1; women #1. While the only school to get a pair of top seeds, I think the men's team is very beatable in that tough East region, specifically by the aforementioned Tennessee. The women's team should get there, but beating LSU in New Orleans is a tall order.
4. Connecticut. Men #4; women #1. Sorry, but a return to 2004 just isn't that likely. The women are heavily favored (again), but the men just aren't going to beat UCLA, even if they get that far.
5. Texas. Men #2; women #8. Just thought I'd throw a longshot in there. Honestly, I think the men will lose to Stanford, if not earlier. But I'd like to see the women do well; for coach Gail Goestenkors, formerly of Duke, a postseason win over UConn is long overdue.
For the record, the other 17 schools are Baylor, Cornell, Duke, Georgia, Kansas State, Louisville, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego, Temple, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Western Kentucky, and Xavier.
1983: Georgia
1999: Duke
2002: Oklahoma
2003: Texas
2004: Connecticut
2005: Michigan State
2006: LSU
Success must love company, because quite a few schools have placed both teams in the NCAA tournaments. There were 20 in 2006, 23 in 2007, and 22 this year. Here are (in my opinion) the most likely of those schools to be doubly pleased in early April.
1. Stanford. Men are a #3 seed; women are a #2 seed. I think the brackets for each work in their favor. The men have the size and skill to beat smaller Texas and Memphis. The women stay in their time zone and have it in them to defeat Maryland. I'm not saying it's going to happen for both teams, but it could.
2. Tennessee. Men #2; women #1. Some people have the men losing in the 2nd round to Butler or South Alabama, but I think they will reach the Final Four. The women are favored to get there, but they may have to face Oklahoma in Oklahoma City. And the recently fallen Sooners have something to prove.
3. North Carolina. Men #1; women #1. While the only school to get a pair of top seeds, I think the men's team is very beatable in that tough East region, specifically by the aforementioned Tennessee. The women's team should get there, but beating LSU in New Orleans is a tall order.
4. Connecticut. Men #4; women #1. Sorry, but a return to 2004 just isn't that likely. The women are heavily favored (again), but the men just aren't going to beat UCLA, even if they get that far.
5. Texas. Men #2; women #8. Just thought I'd throw a longshot in there. Honestly, I think the men will lose to Stanford, if not earlier. But I'd like to see the women do well; for coach Gail Goestenkors, formerly of Duke, a postseason win over UConn is long overdue.
For the record, the other 17 schools are Baylor, Cornell, Duke, Georgia, Kansas State, Louisville, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego, Temple, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Western Kentucky, and Xavier.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Regular season wrap-up
Haven't talked about college basketball for a while, but I have seen quite a few games in the interim. (Missed the UNC-Duke game last weekend, as we finally finished the move we started in January.)
Some talking points:
1. Player of the Year. In the great debate between UNC's junior center Tyler Hansbrough and KSU's freshman forward Michael Beasley, I find myself solidly in Hansbrough's corner, and I feel guilty about that. Not because he's a Tarheel, but because he'll return next year, and Beasley won't. Isn't that strange? It's like I said about Kevin Durant last year: you have to start thinking of these one-and-done players as seniors rather than freshmen.
But while Beasley is tearing up the Big 12 with double-doubles, Hansbrough is doing the same within the context of a much better team, and as the most hated player in America. (Anyone who tells you that Duke's Greg Paulus is more hated is just being ridiculously biased. Aside from the occasional Virginia Tech player, anyone would rather slug Hansbrough than Paulus if given a chance. In fact, of all the people who most deserve to be punched in the face, Tyler's up there with Pete Wentz.)
2. Coach of the Year. No debate here, because it's the same guy that would win Coach with the Coolest Name: Keno Davis. Imagine how easy his recruiting pitch would be:
"Hello, young man. I coach basketball up at Drake University, and I'd like you to be a part of my team. I can't guarantee you playing time or stardom, but I run a clean and fair program where you'll get a solid education and exposure to a really outstanding level of basketball. Oh, and my name is Keno."
Sure, his team overachieved greatly this year, and he deserves the award anyway, but it's all about the name. Too awesome for words. He should win this award every year, or at least until his brothers Blackjack and Craps join the profession.
3. Final Four in advance. The teams I picked in April 2007 to make the 2008 Final Four are doing pretty well. Memphis has been a top 3 team all season. Kansas has hovered in 1-2 seed range. Louisville and USC struggled early but have come on strong recently. All four will make the tourney, and I feel confident all are Sweet 16 material at the very least. (Though USC is probably a 6 or 7 seed right now.) How they fare from there depends a great deal on where they appear on the bracket.
I'm happy with the teams I picked, but if I had to choose alternatives, I'd go with UCLA, Tennessee, Xavier, and Indiana.
4. Who wins it all? A year ago I said Kansas, and nothing's happened this year to make me change my mind. They have the most talent, and almost none of the pressure that can cripple high-profile favorites UNC, Memphis, Tennessee, or UCLA. Again, a proper evaluation requires me to look at where the teams are seeded on the bracket, and I'll try to do that next week.
5. The Lopez twins of Stanford. I can't decide: are they strikingly attractive, or just plain ugly? Click on their names here and decide for yourself.
With conference tournaments underway, and Selection Sunday fast approaching, here is my final seeding chart.
South Regional (Houston)
01. Memphis: Calipari's year to return to the Final Four.
08. Xavier: Tennessee-like depth, without the hype.
09. Duke: So tired of fellow fans giving the kid glove treatment.
16. Notre Dame: Annual underachievers now kinda dangerous.
West Regional (Phoenix)
02. UCLA: Won't have to face Florida this year.
07. Texas: I'm sensing an early upset victim here.
10. Louisville: February's hottest team could March on.
15. Butler: As tourney-tested as UCLA. Perhaps more.
East Regional (Charlotte)
03. UNC: No bad losses, but still the least tested top seed.
06. Georgetown: Held off all kinds of Big East challengers.
11. Drake: Adam Emmenecker is a hero to one of my readers!
14. Indiana: Will Dan Dakich be the next Steve Fisher?
Midwest Regional (Detroit)
04. Tennessee: Creamsicles not as visually repulsive now.
05. Kansas: Yes, you can win a title without Danny Manning.
12. Wisconsin: Pull out wins by boring you for 40 minutes.
13. Stanford: Late slippage prevents a 2 or 3 seed.
Also considered: BYU, Gonzaga, Kent State, Davidson.
Some talking points:
1. Player of the Year. In the great debate between UNC's junior center Tyler Hansbrough and KSU's freshman forward Michael Beasley, I find myself solidly in Hansbrough's corner, and I feel guilty about that. Not because he's a Tarheel, but because he'll return next year, and Beasley won't. Isn't that strange? It's like I said about Kevin Durant last year: you have to start thinking of these one-and-done players as seniors rather than freshmen.
But while Beasley is tearing up the Big 12 with double-doubles, Hansbrough is doing the same within the context of a much better team, and as the most hated player in America. (Anyone who tells you that Duke's Greg Paulus is more hated is just being ridiculously biased. Aside from the occasional Virginia Tech player, anyone would rather slug Hansbrough than Paulus if given a chance. In fact, of all the people who most deserve to be punched in the face, Tyler's up there with Pete Wentz.)
2. Coach of the Year. No debate here, because it's the same guy that would win Coach with the Coolest Name: Keno Davis. Imagine how easy his recruiting pitch would be:
"Hello, young man. I coach basketball up at Drake University, and I'd like you to be a part of my team. I can't guarantee you playing time or stardom, but I run a clean and fair program where you'll get a solid education and exposure to a really outstanding level of basketball. Oh, and my name is Keno."
Sure, his team overachieved greatly this year, and he deserves the award anyway, but it's all about the name. Too awesome for words. He should win this award every year, or at least until his brothers Blackjack and Craps join the profession.
3. Final Four in advance. The teams I picked in April 2007 to make the 2008 Final Four are doing pretty well. Memphis has been a top 3 team all season. Kansas has hovered in 1-2 seed range. Louisville and USC struggled early but have come on strong recently. All four will make the tourney, and I feel confident all are Sweet 16 material at the very least. (Though USC is probably a 6 or 7 seed right now.) How they fare from there depends a great deal on where they appear on the bracket.
I'm happy with the teams I picked, but if I had to choose alternatives, I'd go with UCLA, Tennessee, Xavier, and Indiana.
4. Who wins it all? A year ago I said Kansas, and nothing's happened this year to make me change my mind. They have the most talent, and almost none of the pressure that can cripple high-profile favorites UNC, Memphis, Tennessee, or UCLA. Again, a proper evaluation requires me to look at where the teams are seeded on the bracket, and I'll try to do that next week.
5. The Lopez twins of Stanford. I can't decide: are they strikingly attractive, or just plain ugly? Click on their names here and decide for yourself.
With conference tournaments underway, and Selection Sunday fast approaching, here is my final seeding chart.
South Regional (Houston)
01. Memphis: Calipari's year to return to the Final Four.
08. Xavier: Tennessee-like depth, without the hype.
09. Duke: So tired of fellow fans giving the kid glove treatment.
16. Notre Dame: Annual underachievers now kinda dangerous.
West Regional (Phoenix)
02. UCLA: Won't have to face Florida this year.
07. Texas: I'm sensing an early upset victim here.
10. Louisville: February's hottest team could March on.
15. Butler: As tourney-tested as UCLA. Perhaps more.
East Regional (Charlotte)
03. UNC: No bad losses, but still the least tested top seed.
06. Georgetown: Held off all kinds of Big East challengers.
11. Drake: Adam Emmenecker is a hero to one of my readers!
14. Indiana: Will Dan Dakich be the next Steve Fisher?
Midwest Regional (Detroit)
04. Tennessee: Creamsicles not as visually repulsive now.
05. Kansas: Yes, you can win a title without Danny Manning.
12. Wisconsin: Pull out wins by boring you for 40 minutes.
13. Stanford: Late slippage prevents a 2 or 3 seed.
Also considered: BYU, Gonzaga, Kent State, Davidson.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Beginning to get interesting
Dick Vitale may be sidelined, but the game of college basketball itself is enough to start getting excited.
Wednesday night I attended the UNLV-Arizona game, expecting a high-scoring performance by super soph Chase Budinger. Didn't happen -- he couldn't buy an outside shot, going 1-for-7, and ended up with 6 points. But the Wildcats won anyway, mostly behind man-among-boys Jordan Hill, who had a double-double at the half and finished with 16 points and 19 rebounds. They made a few smart plays at the end, and UNLV (which had led for most of the game) showed a lack of poise with some strange, rushed shots. Still, I would consider it a quality win for the newly Lute-less team.
As a fan who appreciates the art of the rebound, I wondered how perennially undersized Duke would fare against a talented big man like the 6'10" Jordan Hill. My question was somewhat answered Thursday, as Pittsburgh's 6'7" frosh DeJuan Blair notched 15 points and 20 rebounds in his team's win over my alma mater. I saw only part of the game, so I feel unqualified to comment, but I wonder if the Blue Devils can learn from this experience and neutralize the ACC's big men (including Tyler Hansbrough, who's no longer fooling anyone with his goofy looks).
Memphis beat Georgetown. Michigan State beat Texas. Mississippi beat Clemson. (Go M teams!) After this weekend's games, only 9 undefeated teams remain. So here's the latest Seeded 16:
South Regional (Houston)
01. Memphis: Down goes Georgetown, but next comes Arizona.
08. Vanderbilt: Eaten cupcakes thus far, plus GT and Wake.
09. Sam Houston State: Will they run the table? Probably not.
16. UCLA: Open Pac-10 play with a couple of Bay Area games.
Midwest Regional (Detroit)
02. Kansas: Has 7 weeks to prepare for that Texas game.
07. Miami: Might keep winning for another month.
10. Tennessee: Great road win vs. Xavier. Next up is Gonzaga.
15. Butler: Most likely to win out rest of regular season.
East Regional (Charlotte)
03. UNC: Good work, Roy. They're like the Kansas of the East.
06. Mississippi: Showed something by giving Clemson first loss.
11. Michigan State: Statement win against a strong Texas team.
14. Texas A&M: Only loss to Arizona in tough McKale Center.
West Regional (Phoenix)
04. Washington State: Exercised state superiority at Zags.
05. Pittsburgh: Played to their strengths in beating Duke.
12. Texas: Can't slip too far after close loss in Auburn Hills.
13. West Virginia: Tough stretch of games in next 2 weeks.
Also considered: Georgetown, Marquette, Duke, Arizona.
Wednesday night I attended the UNLV-Arizona game, expecting a high-scoring performance by super soph Chase Budinger. Didn't happen -- he couldn't buy an outside shot, going 1-for-7, and ended up with 6 points. But the Wildcats won anyway, mostly behind man-among-boys Jordan Hill, who had a double-double at the half and finished with 16 points and 19 rebounds. They made a few smart plays at the end, and UNLV (which had led for most of the game) showed a lack of poise with some strange, rushed shots. Still, I would consider it a quality win for the newly Lute-less team.
As a fan who appreciates the art of the rebound, I wondered how perennially undersized Duke would fare against a talented big man like the 6'10" Jordan Hill. My question was somewhat answered Thursday, as Pittsburgh's 6'7" frosh DeJuan Blair notched 15 points and 20 rebounds in his team's win over my alma mater. I saw only part of the game, so I feel unqualified to comment, but I wonder if the Blue Devils can learn from this experience and neutralize the ACC's big men (including Tyler Hansbrough, who's no longer fooling anyone with his goofy looks).
Memphis beat Georgetown. Michigan State beat Texas. Mississippi beat Clemson. (Go M teams!) After this weekend's games, only 9 undefeated teams remain. So here's the latest Seeded 16:
South Regional (Houston)
01. Memphis: Down goes Georgetown, but next comes Arizona.
08. Vanderbilt: Eaten cupcakes thus far, plus GT and Wake.
09. Sam Houston State: Will they run the table? Probably not.
16. UCLA: Open Pac-10 play with a couple of Bay Area games.
Midwest Regional (Detroit)
02. Kansas: Has 7 weeks to prepare for that Texas game.
07. Miami: Might keep winning for another month.
10. Tennessee: Great road win vs. Xavier. Next up is Gonzaga.
15. Butler: Most likely to win out rest of regular season.
East Regional (Charlotte)
03. UNC: Good work, Roy. They're like the Kansas of the East.
06. Mississippi: Showed something by giving Clemson first loss.
11. Michigan State: Statement win against a strong Texas team.
14. Texas A&M: Only loss to Arizona in tough McKale Center.
West Regional (Phoenix)
04. Washington State: Exercised state superiority at Zags.
05. Pittsburgh: Played to their strengths in beating Duke.
12. Texas: Can't slip too far after close loss in Auburn Hills.
13. West Virginia: Tough stretch of games in next 2 weeks.
Also considered: Georgetown, Marquette, Duke, Arizona.
Friday, December 07, 2007
17 undefeated teams
I'm paying about half-attention to the early goings this college basketball season. (I'll be at the UNLV-Arizona game in a couple of weeks, so by then I should be a lot more excited.)
I have, however, been keeping an eye on those teams that have yet to lose a game. Last time I wrote about the sport, there were 41 undefeated teams. Since then, 24 have lost.
Seems unfair to leave a team out, so my Seeded 16 is a Seeded 17.
South Regional (Houston)
01. Memphis: Good neutral court wins strengthened their profile.
08. Clemson: Could be 13-0 when they host UNC in the new year.
09. Pittsburgh: Get a pre-holiday test against Duke in NYC.
16. Texas-Arlington: These two Southland teams could both be...
17. Sam Houston State: ...undefeated when they play January 30.
Midwest Regional (Detroit)
02. Kansas: Great win at USC in possible Final Four preview.
07. Butler: Beat Ohio State by 19 points last week.
10. Miami: Could coast through rest of 2007.
15. Vanderbilt: A few okay wins, but rest of SEC not convinced.
East Regional (Charlotte)
03. UNC: I'm frustrated to say that I don't hate these guys yet.
06. Georgetown: Great chance to show stuff at Memphis soon.
11. California: Can measure themselves vs. Kansas State.
14. Mississippi: Matchups against Winthrop, Clemson lay ahead.
West Regional (Phoenix)
04. Texas: Early wins vs. Tennessee, UCLA count a lot.
05. Washington State: Exercised state superiority at Zags.
12. Duke: Lost Martynas Pocius to season-ending injury.
13. St. Mary's: But Gonzaga's still the WCC team to beat.
Also considered: No one for now.
I have, however, been keeping an eye on those teams that have yet to lose a game. Last time I wrote about the sport, there were 41 undefeated teams. Since then, 24 have lost.
Seems unfair to leave a team out, so my Seeded 16 is a Seeded 17.
South Regional (Houston)
01. Memphis: Good neutral court wins strengthened their profile.
08. Clemson: Could be 13-0 when they host UNC in the new year.
09. Pittsburgh: Get a pre-holiday test against Duke in NYC.
16. Texas-Arlington: These two Southland teams could both be...
17. Sam Houston State: ...undefeated when they play January 30.
Midwest Regional (Detroit)
02. Kansas: Great win at USC in possible Final Four preview.
07. Butler: Beat Ohio State by 19 points last week.
10. Miami: Could coast through rest of 2007.
15. Vanderbilt: A few okay wins, but rest of SEC not convinced.
East Regional (Charlotte)
03. UNC: I'm frustrated to say that I don't hate these guys yet.
06. Georgetown: Great chance to show stuff at Memphis soon.
11. California: Can measure themselves vs. Kansas State.
14. Mississippi: Matchups against Winthrop, Clemson lay ahead.
West Regional (Phoenix)
04. Texas: Early wins vs. Tennessee, UCLA count a lot.
05. Washington State: Exercised state superiority at Zags.
12. Duke: Lost Martynas Pocius to season-ending injury.
13. St. Mary's: But Gonzaga's still the WCC team to beat.
Also considered: No one for now.
Monday, November 26, 2007
The oddsmakers
Unlike the NFL, which stages a concert of some sort, the college basketball season begins without too much fanfare. Sure, there's Midnight Madness, if you want to get excited about practice time. But the games themselves sort of happen before you realize it.
Here in Las Vegas, college basketball became a known quantity about a week ago, when the sports books started printing out the championship odds of 80 different teams. This is their top 16 (numbers provided are for entertainment purposes only, blah blah blah I'm not your bookie):
UCLA 4/1
Memphis 9/2
UNC 5/1
Kansas 7/1
Louisville 10/1
Tennessee 12/1
Georgetown 12/1
Michigan State 12/1
Indiana 15/1
Duke 15/1
Arizona 20/1
Washington State 22/1
Kentucky 25/1
Syracuse 28/1
Arkansas 30/1
Stanford 30/1
In case you're wondering, Florida's threepeat odds stand at 75/1, the same odds as preseason NIT champ Texas A&M and finalist Ohio State. Other notables: USC 45/1, Kansas State 100/1, Butler 150/1, Davidson 250/1, Missouri 500/1, and Winthrop on the board at 1000/1. Local teams Nevada and UNLV are 250/1.
The end of the preseason tournaments marks a good time to shake up the seedings. With 41 teams still undefeated, it seems silly for now to include anyone with a loss.
South Regional (Houston)
01. Memphis: Sitting pretty so far at 5-0.
08. Georgetown: Three steady double-digit wins so far.
09. Wisconsin: #1 in the Pomeroy statistical rankings.
16. Duke: Earned their way in with Maui title.
West Regional (Phoenix)
02. UCLA: Howland's defense is killing opponents.
07. Butler: Champs of Alaska Shootout are for real.
10. Texas: Stomped a more experienced Vols team.
15. Clemson: Beat the mighty Gardner-Webb.
Midwest Regional (Detroit)
03. Kansas: Won tough early matchup against Arizona.
06. Washington State: Don't get tested until Gonzaga.
11. Miami: Puerto Rico champs no longer understaffed.
14. Duquesne: After last season's horror, a feel-good story.
East Regional (Charlotte)
04. UNC: Low-scoring but nice wins against Davidson, BYU.
05. Texas A&M: Billy who? NIT champs look mighty strong.
12. New Mexico: Mountain West, represent!
13. Southern Illinois: So far, as good as we expected.
Also considered: the other 25 undefeated teams.
Here in Las Vegas, college basketball became a known quantity about a week ago, when the sports books started printing out the championship odds of 80 different teams. This is their top 16 (numbers provided are for entertainment purposes only, blah blah blah I'm not your bookie):
UCLA 4/1
Memphis 9/2
UNC 5/1
Kansas 7/1
Louisville 10/1
Tennessee 12/1
Georgetown 12/1
Michigan State 12/1
Indiana 15/1
Duke 15/1
Arizona 20/1
Washington State 22/1
Kentucky 25/1
Syracuse 28/1
Arkansas 30/1
Stanford 30/1
In case you're wondering, Florida's threepeat odds stand at 75/1, the same odds as preseason NIT champ Texas A&M and finalist Ohio State. Other notables: USC 45/1, Kansas State 100/1, Butler 150/1, Davidson 250/1, Missouri 500/1, and Winthrop on the board at 1000/1. Local teams Nevada and UNLV are 250/1.
The end of the preseason tournaments marks a good time to shake up the seedings. With 41 teams still undefeated, it seems silly for now to include anyone with a loss.
South Regional (Houston)
01. Memphis: Sitting pretty so far at 5-0.
08. Georgetown: Three steady double-digit wins so far.
09. Wisconsin: #1 in the Pomeroy statistical rankings.
16. Duke: Earned their way in with Maui title.
West Regional (Phoenix)
02. UCLA: Howland's defense is killing opponents.
07. Butler: Champs of Alaska Shootout are for real.
10. Texas: Stomped a more experienced Vols team.
15. Clemson: Beat the mighty Gardner-Webb.
Midwest Regional (Detroit)
03. Kansas: Won tough early matchup against Arizona.
06. Washington State: Don't get tested until Gonzaga.
11. Miami: Puerto Rico champs no longer understaffed.
14. Duquesne: After last season's horror, a feel-good story.
East Regional (Charlotte)
04. UNC: Low-scoring but nice wins against Davidson, BYU.
05. Texas A&M: Billy who? NIT champs look mighty strong.
12. New Mexico: Mountain West, represent!
13. Southern Illinois: So far, as good as we expected.
Also considered: the other 25 undefeated teams.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
