Oscar's most likely (2009)

For the third straight year I'm aiming my wildly erratic predicting power at the Academy Awards, which are announced Sunday. As I did in 2007 and 2008, I rank the frontrunners in all categories by likelihood of winning. (Well, all feature-length categories; I'm ignoring the short films.) All frontrunners determined by Dave Karger (former classmate namecheck!) of Entertainment Weekly.

I would have seen all 5 Best Picture contenders had The Reader not been nominated. I've had a month to convince myself to go, but the story of a mostly naked, teen-humping, illiterate Nazi concentration camp guard just doesn't interest me, even if she's being played by Kate Winslet.

Update: with the ceremony over, how did the frontrunners do?

1. Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
WINNER!

Seems like more of a sure thing than Javier Bardem was in this category last year. I was tempted not to place it atop on the list because the Academy hasn't voted for a dead actor in a really long time. Then again, I wonder if his chances would be that much worse were he still alive; the competition is noteworthy but not exactly Earth-shattering. There will be karmic retribution against fellow nominee Philip Seymour Hoffman, who beat Ledger as Best Actor 3 years ago.

2. Best Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
WINNER!

In a way, this category pits the two greatest American tragedies of the decade against one another: 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina. But while Trouble the Water deals directly with the immediate fallout and aftermath in New Orleans, Man on Wire is set at the World Trade Center... in 1974. Recalling better days would seem to be a winning approach.

3. Best Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
WINNER!

Ticked that The Dark Knight wasn't nominated for Best Picture, but The Reader was? Pay close attention to this lineup instead; it's the one you wanted. Many of the year's big films relied heavily on flashbacks, but few worked as seamlessly as Slumdog did. Kudos to the incredible mix of fictional and real footage that went into Milk, and the anatomy of a leg injury sequence of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

4. Best Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WINNER!

Up against The Dark Knight and Hellboy II: The Golden Army, this is the only nominee also in the running for Best Picture. Which gives it a huge advantage. I don't know the techniques involved in transforming Benjamin and Daisy: how much is latex, and how much is CGI? I hope the voters know the difference.

5. Best Costume Design: The Duchess
WINNER!

This category is usually not so predictable, but The Duchess is the only nominee with a corset advantage. Its competition (Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk, Revolutionary Road) is surprisingly modern and not out of place in a fashion catalog today. In the event that voters tire of 18th century winners, look for Revolutionary Road to upset.

6. Best Animated Film: WALL-E
WINNER!

I was prepared to rank this frontrunner as high as #1 on this list, but then Kung Fu Panda conquered the Annie Awards last month. That film has a lot of fans who are thrilled with its old-fashioned qualities: hand-drawn animation, movie star voices, lots of dialogue and action. WALL-E rebels against many animation conventions in that regard, but it's also very much a breakthrough for Pixar. It won't go home empty handed.

7. Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
WINNER!

I have a feeling that many people, including Academy voters, have no idea what a director does, or know how best to judge direction. I equate directors with general managers in baseball: they don't necessarily instruct the players, or handle the budget, or micromanage every decision. Instead a director controls everything from a distance, letting the cast and crew make many of their own decisions, and making their output adhere to a general vision of how things should go. In that regard, you can guess why Danny Boyle has been winning most of the precursor awards, bringing order to what must have been a chaotic filming process, which crossed barriers of economics, culture, and language.

8. Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
WINNER!

This seemed like much more of a gimme a few months ago. Watching the film, you're convinced that one of Woody Allen's motivations was to showcase Cruz's role. She doesn't have a whole lot of screen time, but she dominates all of her scenes, and is the main subject of conversation among the other characters before she even appears. So her presence is felt throughout. Cruz has since been overshadowed by a bunch of December nominees, but is still the likely winner. According to others, Viola Davis of Doubt has an outside shot.

9. Best Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
WINNER!

Two forces are at work here. Milk is very much a triumph of acting, editing, and directing. Not so much writing. But Black is becoming that rarest of birds, a screenwriter celebrity, for being a young, talented, and good-looking winner in the awards circuit. He, not Gus Van Sant or Sean Penn, has become the person most associated with this movie, a public face on a political hot button issue that remains relevant, especially in California. And Milk is the only Best Picture nominee in this category. (Despite all that, In Bruges would make a better winner.)

10. Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
WINNER!

Bottom line: it doesn't lead the field in nominations. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button did, and Milk has a better balance/ratio of nominees in the major and technical categories. So it's a favorite, but a very beatable one. Fox Searchlight's non-campaign for this movie (it's been using the same commercial since the film's release in November) is an unusual strategy, but I suppose all the previous awards the film has garnered speak loudly enough. If it does win, it's not without precedent: orphans (Oliver!), Indians (Gandhi), American-free casts (The Last Emperor), and very British productions (Chariots of Fire) could be considered the film's Best Picture spiritual forefathers.

A note about The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I really believe this film was about 75 percent of the way toward being one of the greatest films ever made. But ultimately it fails from a sense of cinematic excess and director David Fincher's unwise choice to indulge screenwriter Eric Roth's preference for magical realism. So many brilliant moments gone to eventual waste. Had they tightened up the film, dropped the hummingbird, not added the Hurricane Katrina element, and focused more on Benjamin than Daisy at critical moments...

11. Best Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WINNER!

Despite its problems, the film remains a remarkable visual achievement. You can understand why it took decades to get the basic concept properly made. In the grand intermixing of effects and makeup (see Best Makeup above), Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett are depicted as flawlessly young and believably old. I would have liked to see the title character's reverse aging take more advantage of the actor's earlier career. We see a little bit that reminds us of Seven Years in Tibet -- why not go all the way and depict him in his Seven, Legends of the Fall, and Thelma & Louise periods? A missed opportunity.

12. Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
WINNER!

See next category.

13. Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
LOSER! The Oscar goes to... Slumdog Millionaire.

See previous category. (Kidding. I'll never know the difference.) Some movie experts are paying close attention to these categories to see if Slumdog Millionaire will lose any awards. Others wonder if WALL-E (particularly Ben Burtt, sound technician and voice actor) can make some noise against the year's biggest movie.

14. Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
WINNER!

As I mentioned in my review, this is a remarkable adaptation in that it improves upon its source material in every possible way. Compare to nominees Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon) and John Patrick Shanley (Doubt), who adapted their own stage plays. Beaufoy is a previous nominee (original screenplay for The Full Monty) but has never won. He'll face some competition from the previously mentioned Eric Roth, but the darkhorse is probably David Hare for The Reader.

15. Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
WINNER!

Speaking of The Reader, I have mixed feelings about one of my favorite actresses finally winning an Oscar for a movie that I have no interest in seeing. If you pay attention to the angry world of movie award prognosticating, this role exemplifies the worst things about the process: Holocaust bait, category fraud, last minute release, production problems, Harvey Weinstein. I plead ignorance in this category: I've seen none of the nominees, and am not seeking them out.

16. Best Score: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
WINNER!

If you've seen this movie, what do you remember? Probably not the acting or the dialogue. The visuals and the music come to mind. Rahman gives the film its pulse and energy, both in his songs (two of which are nominated) and his score. But this is a category with more traditional winners, and there are some other good choices. Look for a win by Alexandre Desplat (Benjamin Button) or Thomas Newman (WALL-E, which is even less reliant on dialogue).

17. Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WINNER!

It's like a sampler of great looks from different regions and periods. There's Paris, that train station, postwar New Orleans, that hotel, the sea. Possibly the most accomplished of the nominees. The Dark Knight also covers a number of sets, but they're not as memorable.

18. Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
WINNER!

Handheld camera work is a vital part of this movie, but I don't know if Academy members are in love with that type of filmmaking. The down and dirty approach gets nominations, not wins (see also Children of Men and City of God). The probable winner is Claudio Miranda for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, or possibly Wally Pfister for The Dark Knight.

19. Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
WINNER!

I've actually seen all 5 nominees. Richard Jenkins is solid in The Visitor, but its one Oscar bait scene in the detention center almost rings false. (The restaurant scene would make a much better Oscar clip.) Brad Pitt and Frank Langella are the oddball anchors, more concerned with holding their films together than standing out. This leaves the long-hyped two-man race between two wunderkind actors of the early 1980s, Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Penn has the more prestigious film, the biopic role, and current political relevance. Rourke has the comeback factor, no prior wins, and far more charm. Advantage goes to The Wrestler.

20. Best Song: "Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire
WINNER!

Some recent winners in this category suggest a trend against the biggest names in performing and songwriting. So this is a reasonable pick. If it does win, it will be the first winner in Hindi. Also, as a historical bookend to Three 6 Mafia's win a few years ago, the message is clear: songs with "Pimp" or "Ho" in the title win Oscars. But there is some in-film competition from "O Saya" (not in Hindi) and Peter Gabriel's "Down to Earth" from WALL-E, which I think will win.

21. Best Foreign Language Film: The Class
LOSER! The Oscar goes to... Departures.

I wish I could be more informed about this race, but from what I can tell, any of three films can win: The Class (France), Waltz with Bashir (Israel), and Departures (Japan). If I had to guess, I'll go for the Israeli animated film. I'm enjoying this new trend of films that cross categories: documentary, animation, foreign language film. It's only a matter of time before the major categories become a true free-for-all.

The great Internet meltdown of '09

I watched the Oscar nominations this morning on CNN's online video feed, without volume, and noticed something was awry when the picture of Kate Winslet was not from Revolutionary Road. Soon we discovered that The Reader took the place many felt belonged to The Dark Knight, and the Internet... broke. Popular prediction sites like Awards Daily and In Contention were overloaded. News sites (even CNN) weren't putting up a story. Most embarrassingly, the Academy's own site did not post a full list of nominees for nearly 45 minutes. For movie fans who treat this like their Christmas morning -- or, say, the people in technical categories who might like to know if they were nominated -- it was a shocking display of failure.

And I'm not even talking about Oscar's choices. (Yet.) I managed to avoid the swarm of Bat-fans who crashed message boards in useless venting or protest, likely shouting expletives at an awards body who refused to budge. Why so serious, indeed. I haven't seen The Reader, and may only do so if I submit to completist tendencies and try to see all five nominees. So I won't join the chorus of naysayers who criticize what they do not know. I'm an abstainer, not a complainer.

For your consideration?

Given this time of year, with all the movie awards shows, I would expect to see a lot more TV, online, and print ads touting the various high-profile examples of Oscar bait. I've noticed less such marketing now than in previous years -- not a complaint -- and what I AM seeing is a lot different. For example...

1. Where is the war film? Short answer: there is none. Long answer: do you like war films told from a European perspective? Because then there's Valkyrie, The Reader, and Defiance. None are really breaking through right now. I find it interesting that the nearly 3-hour The Curious Case of Benjamin Button depicts maybe two war-oriented scenes, and both are used in the trailer. Ladies and gentlemen, here is your war film.

2. Where is the All-American film? Maybe Revolutionary Road will make some noise -- 1960s suburbia sounds pretty American -- but until then, what are our choices? Slumdog Millionaire is set abroad, with no stateside actors. Benjamin Button mostly takes place in New Orleans, but advertises more global themes. Frost/Nixon addresses the Presidency, but (as I understand it) from an antagonistic perspective. Over in Gotham, homegrown Harvey Dent is being overshadowed by a Brit as Batman and an Aussie as Joker. This leaves the red, white, and blue iconography of Milk, which seems to wave the Stars and Stripes alongside the rainbow flag. In the age of Obama, what could be more American than a tribute to another community organizer?

3. Where is The Dark Knight? Ever since its DVD release in December, the publicity has kind of halted. Part of the problem is that the face of the film (and most of its precursor awards) belongs to an actor who is no longer alive. But it's more than that. Aside from a brief glimpse of Gary Oldman in ads for the recently released The Unborn, you're not seeing much of the rest of the cast. Strange that Christian Bale, Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, Aaron Eckhart, and Maggie Gyllenhaal have nothing new to promote. Really, the only cast member getting any TV exposure these days is this guy from the Wendy's ads. (Pictured, left.)

I expect this all to change in a few weekends, after the Oscar nominations are announced, but for now it's an interesting lull.

"Ugh. This thing is like a marathon."

(What I said as I caught a little of the 10,000-meter race.)


And so concludes Brevity's coverage of these Beijing games.

What to see this weekend?

In one corner: The Dark Knight. In the other: Mamma Mia!


Leave it to Persepolis to put things into perspective. Thank you, Marjane Satrapi; Batman it is.

Think inside the box

Las Vegas culture, such as it is, creates an events checklist for the semi-ambitious resident.

Cirque du Soleil show? Check. (Mystere, O, and Zumanity.)
Speedway racing? Check. (NASCAR, still driving around in circles.)
Dinner-based production? Check. (Tony and Tina's Italian Wedding.)
Brush with D-list celebrity? Check. (Stupid Carrot Top.)
Hoops? Check. (UNLV vs. San Diego State, Minnesota, and 'Zona.)
Stage musical? Check. (Mamma Mia! and Avenue Q.)
Impersonator? Check. (Danny Gans and Trent Carlini.)
Red carpet movie premiere? Check. (88 Minutes earlier this year.)
Magic show? Check. (Lance Burton, Rick Thomas, and Brett Daniels.)
TV taping? Check. (NBC's America's Got Talent, just last week.)

Until Friday night, I'd never attended a boxing event. The sweet science has a long and storied history with the city of Las Vegas, but while fights aren't the high-priced attraction they used to be, there's still a place here for men determined to beat each other senseless.

The site was Cox Pavilion, just off UNLV's campus. Scheduled were a series of matches that were part of ESPN's Friday Night Fights. The undercard bouts were filled with comparatively young and hungry fighters, but the main event was the arrival of former heavyweight champion Chris Byrd, who slimmed down 2 weight classes over the past six months (from 211 to 175 pounds) to fight as a light heavyweight before he retires next year. I knew nothing about his opponent, Shaun George, but noticed that he looked a lot younger. (George is 30; Byrd 37.)

Opportunity appeared in the form of floor seats on the 4th row, just spitting distance from ringside. (Fortunately, no one on the canvas spit in our direction to prove this point.) We were in good company, surrounded by Byrd's friends and family members. Also present and seated two rows in front of us was ultimate fighter Randy Couture, who I didn't recognize but was very gracious in providing autographs and photo ops to fans and gawkers. (He was there just to have a good time, which is all you can ask for in a celebrity. Also, while casually dressed, he wears couture.)

A view from my camera phone. While the arena was far from packed, it was remarkable how quiet the match was. There were a few vocal fans who offered their coaching opinions, but you could still hear the pugilists breathe up there. Before the match I thought of things to yell (like "Eye of the tiger, baby" and "Sweep the leg") but abandoned them for fear of being, well, heard. So I applauded politely, and saved my loudest cheers for the Round 4 girl.

Both men got their share of punches, but you could tell that George had more energy and was tallying up the points on the scorecard. Byrd showed some fire toward the end, but a series of devastating punches floored him. He got up, but George kept at it, and his last punch left Byrd on the ropes, facing us. We saw what the referee saw: the former champ's eyes rolling, unable to focus on the man in front of him. TKO. Here's the ESPN recap.

So, boxing? Check. And I wouldn't mind checking it again.

[Final note: if you plan on visiting Las Vegas and would like to know more about any of the shows, venues, or events described in this post, let me know. Generally, I don't review local attractions, but I'll try to give you an idea as to what to expect.]

Where's the gong?

For part of the Mother's Day festivities, we returned to the Planet Hollywood Hotel and Casino, this time to attend a taping of the NBC summer series America's Got Talent. At first we considered any combination of picnics, art walks, or community festivals to mark the day, but in the end we could not deny the sheer marquee power of host Jerry Springer and judges David Hasselhoff, Sharon Osbourne, and Piers Morgan.

We had good (free) seats in the auditorium right next to the main cameras, which was ideal: we were close enough for a great view, but still hidden under the cameras. (Many have the desire to be captured on television; I am not one of those people.)

Before anyone famous showed up, the production crew filmed the audience doing things like standing ovations, seated applause, concerted booing, and the ever-usable collective shock and anger. Presumably, they'll add these moments where appropriate during the editing process. But it confirmed what I've long believed about television: it's all fake.

[Dramatic aside: After all that phony audience interaction, I became nauseous. I looked right and left, searching for ANYTHING that seemed real. And there he was, God's gift to Germany: David Hasselhoff. Thank you, Herr Hair.]

The judges ran down the aisle to their seats amidst timely applause, and the show began. After a few opening remarks in which he reminds us that he's not talented, Jerry Springer tries to invoke an anything-can-happen atmosphere, and reports that last season's winner has a recurring gig at the Las Vegas Hilton. So it's appropriate that the showrunners (including exec producer Simon Cowell, who didn't appear) wanted the competition here.

We witnessed about 16 acts perform, and some were clearly there for the sake of television. We were coached by the warmup guy, a Lewis Black wannabe, to chant "Off! Off! Off!" when we desired a performer to stop. (To me, this is a poor word choice. We were already cheering on Mr. Knight Rider with "Hoff! Hoff! Hoff!" so anything similar just made things confusing.)

Frequently I felt the need to act upon my wiseass tendencies in this venue. For example, when a mother/daughter pair of whistlers (they performed "Climb Every Mountain") interacted with the judges, the daughter -- who said she was about 40 -- started getting sassy. She mentioned to David Hasselhoff that she used to keep a life-size poster of him on her bedroom wall. "So did he," I yelled as a reply. I doubt he heard that, and I'm sure the adjacent cameras cut out the ambient noise, but at least I entertained those around me.

I met my sarcasm Kryptonite when a U.S. Army serviceman came on stage wearing fatigues and a guitar, and mentioned that he'd spent the past 15 months in Iraq. As he chatted with the judges, each of his responses was met with applause. Which was fine, but then he started singing that dreadful Edwin McCain song "I'll Be." Whether or not he was good enough, I sure as heck wasn't going to say anything.

Overall, it was an okay experience; I can kind of see why shows like American Idol have such a young, Stepford-esque audience willing to behave like idiots on cue. I would like to think that a taping of something like The Daily Show would be more entertaining, though similarly filled with stops and starts.

What movie will win?

The nominees for Best Picture are...

FATONEMENT


UNO


MICHAEL CLAYTHING


NO COUNTRY FOR COLD MEN


THERE WILL BE FUDD

What would Brian Boitano do?

Has any out-of-shape actor gotten more career mileage by showing off his out-of-shape body than Will Ferrell? He's like the Harvey Keitel and Dennis Franz of comedy. He must be stopped.

What? A tasteful production photo that doesn't show the guy in a leotard? Yes, and you're welcome. I saw a sneak preview of Blades of Glory, and I laughed (hard) against my better judgment. When quarrelsome men's figure skaters Chazz Michael Michaels (Ferrell) and Jimmy MacElroy (Jon Heder) are banned from further singles competition, they began their steady fade into anonymity. Then someone discovers a loophole in the rulebook that allows them to continue skating as a pairs team, and the awkward fun begins.

Meanwhile, the darlings of the pairs competition (twin siblings played by married couple Will Arnett and Amy Poehler -- yuck) try to sabotage their new rivals by doing everything but bribing the judges. They enlist their not-famous sister (Jenna Fischer) to spy on training sessions and have the guys quarrel over her.

Consider this a bookend to Zoolander, as the divadom of male modeling is now applied to men's figure skating. The action in the film is fairly impressive, and with good reason: Jamie Sale and David Pelletier were listed among the stunt skaters. And, as you can tell from the ambiguous logo in the photo above, the movie was very careful not to use the word "Olympics" or anything else that directly related to the Olympics.

As a side note, anyone who's ever wanted to see Jenna Fischer wear more revealing clothing than she does on The Office has a very good reason to go. (I have to start watching that show now.)

Vote Sanjaya!

I've paid mild attention to American Idol, but really get into it once it's down to 12 finalists. With DVR, I can just watch the wrap-up clips of the contestants and decide which I want to hear in its entirety (or for which I want to watch the judges' responses).

Normally I start playing favorites around now, but I'd rather address the curious case of Sanjaya Malakar. I saw him and his sister in the auditions, and made a mental note to follow their progress. I mean, Indian-American idols? What a bizarre way to advance the ethnicity! I'm on board!

Interestingly, also on board are Howard Stern and Vote for the Worst. While their intentions are unclear -- is it the frizzy hair? -- I'll take the support. Because this is what everyone needs to realize: enough people who watch American Idol are voting for an Indian guy. This means, in all likelihood, that white teenage girls are voting for him (a theory posed here). And this is a good thing for every awkward, too-skinny Indian high schooler trying to fit in. Trust me, I know.

Voting for older and better singers may be wise. But voting for Sanjaya is actually important.

55 Fiction Friday hung out in the chemistry lab after school.

The hit show's producers decided to try something different.

Whittle the field to 64 singers and divide them into four groups: Stevie Wonder wannabes, soulful divas, Southern rockers, and punk chicks. Keep Randy and Simon, but replace Paula with Dick Vitale.

Ratings were about the same. The winner had old school appeal but mid-major talent.

Next of Kinnear

Can you consider an Oscar nominated actor underrated? Maybe, in the case of Greg Kinnear. "Meteoric" doesn't begin to describe his early career path. Filmography highlights: hosted "Talk Soup" on E! until 1995. Filled William Holden's shoes in the remake of Sabrina in 1995. Hosted "Later" on NBC until 1996. Got the Academy's attention for 1997's As Good As It Gets.

And then? The aspiring actor's more realistic dream: a steady career. He's had a healthy mix of high-profile supporting work (Nurse Betty, We Were Soldiers) and low-budget starring roles (Auto Focus, The Matador). Last week I saw advanced screenings of each: Invincible and Little Miss Sunshine.

Invincible is the latest in a genre that Disney has mastered these past few years: the inspirational true sports story. Like Glory Road, Miracle, Remember the Titans, or The Rookie, we relive a purer era of sport that retains all of the action and none of the sex and profanity. And it totally works every time.

Mark Wahlberg takes time out of his busy pants-dropping schedule to play Vince Papale, a regular guy who happens to be built for pro football, despite little organized experience in the sport. He becomes a beacon of hope among his working-class union friends, straight out of a Philadelphia production of On the Waterfront. He gets his chance to become a contender when new Eagles coach Dick Vermeil (Kinnear) holds open tryouts.

It's hard to make audience members care about a special teams player whose primary job is to run down the kickoff returner, but the movie makes it work. Kinnear and Wahlberg do not share a lot of screen time, but still manage to drive home the theme of making the most of an opportunity when given a clean slate.

Little Miss Sunshine is, well, a very different film. The title creates the expectation that creepy child beauty pageants (revived in our memory by recent events) will be mocked mercilessly, and they are, but only in the film's last half hour. It's everything that comes before the climactic competition that makes this movie so special.

This is a quirky family comedy that manages to avoid all the pretentious traps of other quirky family comedies. (I'm looking at you, Wes Anderson.) The film works because each family member provides the others with just the right amount of therapy, despite their individual insecurities.

I imagine most of the praise will go to Steve Carell's tragicomic portrayal of a suicidal academic, but I was more impressed with Kinnear's tougher role as the unlikable motivational speaker and family leader. No complaints, though, from what should be the year's best acting ensemble.

All in all, Greg Kinnear has had quite a run. You accept him on screen, completely forgetting that he wasn't always known as an actor. Consider, by way of comparison, another snarky ex-host with a similar name, who also worked his way up the TV ranks before graduating into movies: Craig Kilborn. That's the more common story: typecasted, into the same comedic jerk persona.

55 Fiction Friday feels typecast as a storyteller.

The checkpoint guards believed that Samuel merited special attention. After all, this was not a case of racial profiling. This was science.

Their stacks of news alerts had emphasized shoe bombs and liquid explosives, so the decision was swift and fierce. Dr. Scholl be damned; in this airport, Samuel would most certainly not be gellin'.

Sport or competition?

Despite what my creative writing might indicate, I haven't been watching the Winter Olympics. I saw about 30 minutes of ice dancing Sunday night, sticking with it only because the couples kept falling down. Hilarious!

Ice dancing is like ballroom dancing, except the costumes are thinner and include skates. The comparison is appropriate -- even though there are no Olympic medals awarded for ballroom dancing -- because neither is a sport. Sure, they require fitness, training, and a mix of born talent and learned skill, as do sports. But they're not sports; they're competitions.

What separates the two? Sports have two main distinctions:

1. Objective outcomes. Sporting results are defined and ruled by numerical superiority; winners kick or shoot the most goals, score the most points, hit the most runs, throw something the greatest distance, reach the finish line fastest, etc. While there is officiating in some sports, it exists mostly to enforce rules, not to determine the outcome.

Competitions like ice dancing, ballroom dancing, figure skating, and gymnastics, however, are judged subjectively. Sure, there may be general criteria, and the best judges have well-trained eyes and can break a performance down to a science, but it's still a personal science. Also competitions: boxing and diving.

2. No diva behavior. Based on its female operatic roots, "diva" is a term generally reserved for women, but I think the term applies to men as well. Sure, Elton John and Johnny Weir are divas, but so are Kanye West and Bode Miller. Divas are to be expected and even encouraged in competitions, but they have no place in sport. Prime example: Terrell Owens is a diva in football, and look where it's gotten him.

The two main attractions on TV tonight are competitions: women's figure skating and women's finalists on American Idol. Should you watch either, don't be surprised if a competitor embraces divahood to distinguish herself, or at least gets described that way.

By making these distinctions, I realize that I'm classifying NASCAR, golf, and bowling as sports. I'm okay with that. I'm not suggesting that a sport requires more athletic ability than a competition; I'm just pointing out an easy way to separate sports from all other competitive events.

Comments and exceptions to the rule are welcome.